PHOTO: Tara Winstead., Pexels., 2021.
Only a couple months ago I wrote an article discussing the new precedent The Opportunities Party (TOP) has set, with many pundits saying they have become the country's new ‘kingmaker’.
With the election around the corner, this notion has been all but confirmed, though the conversations around TOP have shifted considerably.
A recent Stuff New article, by Glenn McConnell, Sam Smith and Emma Ricketts, included a video compilation of the 19 times Luxon ruled out a coalition with TOP.
The Prime Minister said months ago TOP is not being viewed as a potential partner in a coalition and hasn’t gone back on this statement since.
“I’ve ruled them out, period, done. We’ve completed that, we had these conversations weeks ago”, Luxon said.
“I don’t know what you’ve been doing for the last few months but those are my words”, was another recent statement made by Luxon after he grew frustrated with questions regarding his coalition.
But a Herald-Motu poll on the 19th of October saw the Opportunity party accumulate a 7.6% voting average, which was the highest increase of any party.
Likewise, the probability of the current National, Act and NZ First coalition forming another government has decreased to 30.6%, according to the poll they conducted.
The Opportunity party themselves have not yet ruled out working with the National party.
Leader Qiulae Wong has repeatedly expressed interest in working with whichever party is winning the election, as long as it ends with TOP in the government.
In a more informal instance, TOP Deputy Leader Daniel Eb was asked in a TikTok by Kea Kids News what party he would vote for if not TOP.
He answered with uncertainty but ultimately said he’d vote for the National party and reiterated his party’s intention of not aligning themselves with National or Labour.
The video sparked some controversy and was reposted on multiple different platforms by others who disagreed with Eb’s statement.
Some commentators on a Reddit post discussing the video called TOP a “Trojan horse”, accusing the party of misleading voters who do not want to see them partnering with National.
Roman* is a Political Science student at the University of Canterbury who has been planning on voting for the Opportunity party since the beginning of the year.
“It started off because I wanted to see someone new in parliament,” he said.
Roman saw the video of Eb while scrolling on TikTok. While taken aback initially he still disagrees with people who are calling the Opportunity party liars.
“I think it was a strange thing to say no matter what, especially if you are trying to be seen as unaligned to either side.”
Having followed the party for some time now, Roman believes TOP has been clear with their ability to negotiate with any party that wins the election.
In fact, Wong, on the 29th of September, after announcing TOP’s five key policies for the 2026 election, purposefully left out TOP’s universal basic income and land tax policies from that list of non-negotiables.
She explained that this was in order to maximise her party’s negotiating abilities with either party that wins the election.
“Personally, I would rather see them in a coalition with Labour and Greens, but as long as they make it into parliament, I will be happy”, Roman said.
He does understand why some voters for the Opportunity party would be upset if they choose National over Labour in a tight election.
This is mostly due to many of their policies, especially environmental and economic, being perceived as left-leaning and more similar to Labour, or even Greens’ policies.
With the chances of the Opportunity party gaining a seat in parliament now more likely than not, it does seem strange their future is still so uncertain.
Multiple different scenarios are possible, and all have near equal chances of happening.
TOP could form a coalition with Labour and push them over the edge. Likewise, Luxon could go back on his word and side with TOP in a different coalition.
But some Opportunity voters like Roman say they are happy with either of these outcomes, so long as TOP is a part of our next government.
“Assuming they get the votes they need then I think seeing them in a coalition with either party is better than seeing them being left out.”
*Name changed for anonymity.